As Myanmar’s military government prepares for its first election since the 2021 coup, fighting has intensified across the country. While the junta appears to be regaining some territory, the human cost on the ground continues to rise.
In recent weeks, the military has launched large-scale offensives in Arakan (Rakhine) and Chin states, employing airstrikes, naval bombardments, and artillery. These attacks have resulted in civilian casualties and injuries, with local leaders accusing the regime of deliberately targeting civilians to spread fear.
The military’s strategy appears focused on securing key southern Arakan townships before the scheduled vote, relying heavily on air and naval power due to blocked overland routes. The recent recapture of Kyaukme in Shan State—a strategic town on a major trade route to China—marks a significant gain for the junta as it attempts to project stability ahead of the polls.
Meanwhile, humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate. Recent reports document over 35,000 newly displaced persons in just one township of northern Karen State, with hundreds of widows lacking medical aid and children unable to access education. These figures represent a fraction of the more than 3.5 million officially displaced people nationwide, with actual numbers likely higher.
The election, scheduled to begin in late December and extend into January, is expected to include only about one-third of constituencies due to widespread insecurity. Both domestic and international observers have largely rejected the process, noting that opposition parties and resistance-controlled regions are excluded from participation.
China’s expanding support has played a crucial role in shifting the balance of the civil war. Beijing has supplied military technology to the junta, pressured ethnic armed groups to accept ceasefires, and restricted cross-border access to supplies—making it increasingly difficult for resistance forces to operate.
Both Naypyidaw and Beijing appear to hope that certifying the election will add a layer of legitimacy to Myanmar’s government, potentially paving the way for increased diplomatic engagement with countries within Beijing’s orbit and beyond.
