Myanmar’s military government has announced it will hold general elections starting December 28, 2025—the first since the 2021 coup. Critics and international observers widely expect the vote to be neither free nor fair, designed instead to cement the junta’s hold on power. China is playing a central role in backing the electoral process, aiming to secure its own strategic and economic interests in the region.
The junta-controlled Union Election Commission will oversee the polls, which are being rolled out in phases. While 55 parties have registered, the country’s most significant opposition groups have been banned or excluded. A political party law enacted in 2023 bars anyone with a criminal conviction from participating—a move that disqualified imprisoned leaders like Aung San Suu Kyi. Parties linked to ethnic armed groups designated as “terrorist organizations” are also prohibited.
Alongside these restrictions, the junta has extended a state of emergency, imposed martial law in numerous townships, and severely limited political freedoms. Human Rights Watch has stated the electoral framework fails to meet international standards, ensuring military-backed parties will dominate.
China has become the junta’s most important international supporter, urging Southeast Asian nations and ASEAN to accept the elections as a path to “peace and reconciliation.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has even promised technological support for the census required before the vote.
This backing comes after a major shift in China’s approach. Initially keeping its distance after the 2021 coup, Beijing grew concerned in 2024 as the junta suffered significant military defeats. Fearing total collapse and the rise of a West-leaning alternative government, China began providing military aid, diplomatic support, and brokering ceasefires with ethnic armed groups.
In a striking display of influence, China mediated a ceasefire with the Kokang MNDAA in early 2025 and later pressured the group to hand back control of the strategic town of Lashio to the junta. Senior Chinese envoys were dispatched to oversee the transfer, underscoring Beijing’s active role in shaping events on the ground.
China’s primary motivations are economic. It seeks to reopen critical trade routes, like the Mandalay–Lashio–Muse highway, which has been disrupted by conflict and is now largely controlled by ethnic armies. Reviving the stalled China-Myanmar Economic Corridor—a key Belt and Road Initiative project—is also a top priority.
Beyond diplomacy and ceasefires, China is directly involved in shaping the political landscape. The Chinese Communist Party has hosted multiple delegations from junta-approved political parties for “study tours” inside China. These visits, which include election officials, showcase China’s model of managed elections and authoritarian governance.
A coalition of international election experts has already rejected the junta’s plan, warning that genuine democracy is impossible under current conditions of violence, repression, and censorship. They describe the planned election as a sham meant to legitimize military rule.
Despite this, China’s support has encouraged other regional powers to re-engage with the junta. At a major regional summit in Bangkok in April 2025, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing met with the leaders of India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and others—marking his broadest diplomatic outreach since the coup.
A devastating earthquake in central Myanmar in March 2025, which the junta was widely criticized for mishandling, ironically opened the door for more international engagement as countries provided aid. This humanitarian response accelerated a pragmatic shift among some nations toward dealing with the military government.
While few expect the elections to be credible, several governments may pragmatically accept the results, seeing a nominally civilian administration as an opportunity to reset relations. For China, that acceptance would represent a strategic victory, ensuring a stable and friendly government in Myanmar that protects its investments and strategic corridor to the Indian Ocean.
